Blood in the streets in the town of New Haven "Peace Frog" - The Doors
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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27–15 on winners spread MAE 10.9 42 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Northwestern @ Butler +0.5 132.3 53% 69–71 ✓
Kennesaw State @ UC Irvine +7.1 146.7 78% 59–76 ✓
Davidson @ Providence +3.4 140.0 65% 69–58 ✗
Northern Iowa @ North Texas +2.1 131.9 58% 48–68 ✓
Saint Mary's @ USC -3.5 145.8 35% 71–36 ✓
Mississippi State @ UNLV -7.7 148.0 22% 80–58 ✓
Kent State @ Towson -1.9 126.6 37% 65–54 ✓
Arizona State @ New Mexico +2.1 152.8 57% 85–82 ✗
Providence @ Indiana +0.9 134.0 53% 73–89 ✓
Alcorn State @ South Alabama +17.7 130.6 90% 65–74 ✓
Colgate @ App State -1.1 125.8 46% 50–72 ✗
Dartmouth @ Boston College +16.9 140.8 89% 88–83 ✗
Minnesota @ Wake Forest -0.7 122.5 48% 51–57 ✗
Bowling Green @ Weber State +0.6 142.9 53% 70–73 ✓
Valparaiso @ DePaul +18.1 149.3 89% 70–89 ✓
TCU @ Colorado State -4.2 137.2 32% 72–76 ✗
Merrimack @ Troy +13.0 133.1 85% 72–68 ✗
Maine @ Elon +5.8 139.0 75% 69–56 ✗
Niagara @ Binghamton -2.1 141.8 39% 65–62 ✓
VMI @ George Washington +11.5 145.3 85% 64–77 ✓
Tarleton State @ Iona +4.1 131.8 68% 51–62 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Ohio State +4.6 143.5 63% 91–90 ✗
Arizona @ West Virginia +0.2 147.2 54% 76–83 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Vanderbilt +12.6 152.2 86% 56–87 ✓
Morehead State @ Cleveland State +6.9 131.2 73% 71–69 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Eastern Illinois +4.8 140.3 65% 59–72 ✓
Wichita State @ Florida +6.1 148.9 71% 51–88 ✓
NC State @ BYU +1.7 145.9 57% 61–72 ✓
Pepperdine @ New Mexico State +5.3 138.2 71% 82–70 ✗
West Georgia @ Samford +12.4 148.6 86% 65–86 ✓
Sam Houston @ UNC Wilmington +1.0 151.6 55% 60–69 ✓
George Mason @ James Madison +3.2 147.3 65% 66–61 ✗
Holy Cross @ Virginia +6.0 131.9 71% 41–67 ✓
Santa Clara @ Washington -3.0 138.3 42% 69–76 ✗
Long Island University @ Lafayette +2.8 141.2 60% 56–75 ✓
Navy @ Pennsylvania +4.2 147.7 64% 86–78 ✗
Indiana State @ Arkansas State +5.9 147.6 77% 81–86 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Belmont +4.1 149.0 65% 74–83 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ East Carolina +7.5 147.2 77% 69–93 ✓
Oklahoma @ Louisville +3.3 143.8 63% 69–64 ✗
Ole Miss @ Purdue +2.1 141.7 59% 78–80 ✓
Utah State @ North Texas -5.6 139.7 25% 61–57 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.