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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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74–28 on winners spread MAE 10.8 102 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Delaware @ Saint Peter's +3.0 141.2 67% 64–72 ✓
Akron @ Yale +3.9 162.4 62% 58–74 ✓
Holy Cross @ Siena +5.4 132.0 72% 78–70 ✗
Longwood @ North Carolina Central +2.2 142.6 60% 82–67 ✗
App State @ North Texas +15.1 126.4 88% 64–68 ✓
St. John's @ Providence -3.1 143.5 32% 72–70 ✓
Cincinnati @ Dayton -1.6 135.9 42% 66–59 ✓
Jackson State @ UTEP +15.7 140.2 89% 61–67 ✓
Florida A&M @ BYU +25.6 149.0 91% 57–103 ✓
Southern @ Loyola Marymount +3.1 133.6 65% 73–89 ✓
Duke @ Georgia Tech -13.8 135.8 16% 82–56 ✓
North Florida @ Florida +21.6 163.2 90% 45–99 ✓
Marquette @ Xavier -1.1 150.7 44% 72–70 ✓
UConn @ Butler -4.2 144.7 36% 78–74 ✓
South Carolina State @ Northern Kentucky +3.8 136.4 68% 47–58 ✓
SMU @ Boston College -8.6 147.2 20% 103–77 ✓
Vermont @ Dartmouth +1.4 132.3 59% 54–84 ✓
Princeton @ Rutgers +2.2 151.6 56% 83–82 ✗
Penn State @ Drexel -8.0 144.5 20% 75–64 ✓
Chattanooga @ Indiana +16.0 151.2 88% 65–74 ✓
Syracuse @ Maryland +16.8 154.2 88% 60–87 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Saint Joseph's +3.0 139.1 65% 62–82 ✓
Mississippi State @ Memphis +1.4 151.8 57% 79–66 ✗
Fairfield @ Monmouth +2.3 142.4 65% 74–88 ✓
UMBC @ Marist +6.6 142.9 73% 73–76 ✓
Maine @ Stony Brook -2.8 139.0 43% 72–74 ✗
Saint Francis @ Robert Morris +7.0 142.5 75% 77–90 ✓
Navy @ Coppin State -3.2 136.4 30% 60–68 ✗
Lehigh @ Long Island University +1.4 143.5 50% 60–59 ✗
Hampton @ Loyola Maryland +3.6 139.9 64% 76–68 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Central Connecticut +8.4 134.4 80% 80–84 ✓
Manhattan @ Presbyterian +5.2 146.4 70% 86–81 ✗
Niagara @ St. Bonaventure +21.0 129.6 89% 52–71 ✓
Youngstown State @ South Carolina Upstate -5.4 148.6 25% 72–64 ✓
Sam Houston @ Pittsburgh +22.2 154.7 90% 78–110 ✓
Lamar @ Texas Tech +15.7 138.2 88% 57–101 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Houston +23.3 135.7 90% 51–87 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Michigan State +12.6 159.0 86% 69–86 ✓
Wake Forest @ Clemson +11.3 133.4 86% 62–73 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Eastern Kentucky +3.5 147.4 64% 91–80 ✗
Louisville @ Florida State +3.4 146.7 66% 90–76 ✗
Boston University @ UMass Lowell +6.9 145.2 73% 71–83 ✓
Chicago State @ Cal State Northridge +21.1 147.1 91% 57–81 ✓
Wright State @ Eastern Michigan -2.4 147.5 44% 82–86 ✗
St. Thomas @ Bowling Green -2.9 152.6 40% 93–68 ✓
Evansville @ Ball State +3.7 136.2 60% 43–80 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Kansas City -2.6 139.0 44% 66–73 ✗
High Point @ Southern Illinois +1.4 142.4 57% 94–81 ✗
Mercer @ Winthrop +7.0 156.2 76% 97–102 ✓
UNC Asheville @ UNC Wilmington +5.9 145.5 74% 74–85 ✓
UT Arlington @ Liberty +13.9 146.0 85% 56–79 ✓
UAlbany @ Fordham +5.9 151.7 76% 83–87 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Miami +9.4 149.7 80% 78–74 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Minnesota +11.5 141.4 85% 60–74 ✓
James Madison @ South Alabama +1.5 134.4 56% 49–77 ✓
Georgia State @ Troy +11.3 145.4 87% 57–77 ✓
Canisius @ Bradley +23.7 144.2 91% 59–92 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Arkansas +25.9 153.5 91% 67–95 ✓
UC Irvine @ Duquesne -7.2 129.2 26% 54–70 ✗
North Carolina @ UCLA +4.0 146.4 64% 76–74 ✗
UC Davis @ Pepperdine +2.1 140.5 58% 46–85 ✓
UC Riverside @ UNLV +4.6 138.9 71% 53–66 ✓
East Texas A&M @ South Florida +6.5 141.7 72% 62–88 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ East Carolina +4.6 146.1 70% 84–79 ✗
Mississippi Valley State @ Tulsa +13.9 135.0 89% 48–93 ✓
Austin Peay @ Vanderbilt +23.1 139.3 90% 55–85 ✓
Furman @ Harvard -3.3 134.1 30% 77–63 ✓
Marshall @ Southern Miss -1.0 143.9 51% 66–68 ✗
Old Dominion @ UL Monroe +3.7 141.5 59% 80–75 ✗
Coastal Carolina @ Arkansas State +9.7 138.0 83% 67–97 ✓
Bellarmine @ Colorado +22.3 148.9 91% 55–79 ✓
Air Force @ Boise State +17.5 134.2 89% 59–77 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Texas State +8.3 146.1 81% 61–83 ✓
Tennessee State @ Morehead State +2.8 151.0 58% 68–74 ✓
Lafayette @ Portland -1.2 141.1 48% 64–74 ✗
Texas Southern @ Abilene Christian +11.2 144.2 82% 65–69 ✓
Central Michigan @ Arizona +20.0 150.3 90% 41–94 ✓
Samford @ Alabama A&M -12.5 159.1 16% 97–90 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Southern Utah +5.2 146.2 67% 83–75 ✗
Idaho @ Pacific +3.3 139.3 66% 95–72 ✗
Washington State @ Northern Iowa +0.4 146.7 52% 76–68 ✗
DePaul @ Northwestern +6.5 136.9 72% 64–84 ✓
Arizona State @ Massachusetts -11.8 148.4 18% 78–62 ✓
Villanova @ Creighton +2.8 148.2 64% 79–86 ✓
Purdue @ Auburn +12.2 150.2 80% 69–87 ✓
UT Martin @ Southern Indiana +4.6 142.0 71% 77–46 ✗
Western Illinois @ Lindenwood +1.9 135.8 61% 65–71 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Southeast Missouri State +1.3 136.3 58% 64–80 ✓
Queens University @ Ole Miss +25.0 147.9 91% 62–80 ✓
South Dakota @ Santa Clara +12.5 165.2 87% 81–98 ✓
Colorado State @ Nevada +10.7 142.3 84% 66–64 ✗
California Baptist @ Fresno State +0.8 149.6 50% 86–69 ✗
Bethune-Cookman @ Davidson +11.1 139.9 85% 63–76 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Denver -1.8 153.9 41% 82–75 ✓
Kentucky @ Ohio State -4.1 160.9 30% 65–85 ✗
Green Bay @ Drake +20.6 139.4 90% 62–72 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Florida International +7.6 142.9 72% 69–75 ✓
Montana @ San Francisco +16.2 145.3 88% 67–71 ✓
VMI @ Richmond +5.1 144.8 72% 71–78 ✓
Jacksonville @ UCF +10.3 148.8 84% 66–86 ✓
Utah @ Iowa +1.3 154.4 54% 88–95 ✓
Temple @ Rhode Island +4.7 146.0 65% 79–85 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.