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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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22–8 on winners spread MAE 8.9 30 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Grambling @ USC +5.4 139.2 69% 69–80 ✓
Denver @ Montana +6.2 145.5 71% 73–83 ✓
Old Dominion @ Boston College +14.1 144.6 90% 52–82 ✓
Liberty @ Kansas State -11.9 132.5 14% 67–65 ✓
Ohio @ Texas State +1.3 154.6 55% 65–74 ✓
Texas Southern @ New Mexico +22.8 157.8 98% 68–99 ✓
Southern Miss @ Montana State +16.8 168.1 94% 59–79 ✓
Drake @ Vanderbilt -0.0 146.7 50% 81–70 ✓
Radford @ Chicago State -14.8 155.8 9% 63–48 ✓
Hampton @ Duquesne -3.9 132.2 36% 64–59 ✓
Siena @ Miami (OH) +0.3 152.6 51% 58–70 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Ball State -12.1 147.8 14% 61–63 ✗
Howard @ UMBC -4.9 148.3 33% 77–95 ✗
UAB @ Louisiana -8.5 160.7 22% 98–86 ✓
Drexel @ Purdue Fort Wayne +4.6 147.5 66% 81–87 ✓
Boise State @ South Dakota State -12.3 159.1 13% 83–82 ✓
Memphis @ UConn +6.1 144.8 71% 99–97 ✗
Illinois State @ George Washington -1.1 154.4 46% 64–72 ✗
Southern Illinois @ Louisiana Tech +6.9 143.5 73% 79–85 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Alabama A&M +5.2 152.0 68% 88–83 ✗
Mercer @ Jacksonville +8.1 149.7 77% 90–89 ✗
Denver @ Cal State Northridge +11.7 155.7 86% 60–89 ✓
Penn State @ Fordham -18.9 164.6 4% 85–66 ✓
High Point @ Old Dominion -14.9 144.7 9% 73–67 ✓
Longwood @ Kansas State -0.2 143.0 49% 64–80 ✗
Colorado @ Michigan State -1.1 145.2 46% 56–72 ✗
Merrimack @ UMass Lowell +12.7 134.7 88% 74–81 ✓
Michigan @ Virginia Tech -11.0 138.3 16% 75–63 ✓
Long Island University @ Winthrop +5.8 149.8 70% 65–87 ✓
Clemson @ San Francisco -0.4 138.6 49% 70–55 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.