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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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37–17 on winners spread MAE 9.9 54 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Youngstown State @ Stephen F. Austin	+7.4	121.4	75%	57–64	✓
New Mexico State @ UNLV	+13.4	144.1	89%	65–72	✓
Stony Brook @ Columbia	+18.9	156.8	96%	63–82	✓
Kent State @ Cleveland State	+1.9	133.8	57%	68–52	✗
Rider @ Bucknell	+9.7	154.9	81%	57–53	✗
Cal Poly @ Saint Mary's	+6.6	167.9	73%	66–80	✓
Prairie View A&M @ Northern Colorado	+23.2	160.4	98%	98–114	✓
Eastern Washington @ California Baptist	+2.2	158.5	58%	68–79	✓
Mississippi Valley State @ BYU	+42.1	146.0	100%	43–87	✓
Stanford @ Santa Clara	-2.9	154.7	40%	71–69	✓
Portland @ Princeton	+6.4	147.5	72%	67–94	✓
St. John's @ Georgia	-5.2	160.6	32%	63–66	✗
Hampton @ Boise State	+18.8	140.3	96%	69–83	✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Northeastern	+7.8	142.8	76%	68–60	✗
American University @ UAlbany	+4.8	128.2	67%	81–77	✗
Holy Cross @ Maine	+6.7	143.1	73%	55–80	✓
Boston University @ Howard	+7.1	139.0	74%	69–62	✗
Omaha @ Lamar	-2.7	157.8	40%	65–59	✓
Wofford @ Portland State	-2.9	159.1	39%	74–79	✗
Charleston @ Rhode Island	+10.7	172.4	83%	53–91	✓
Miami @ VCU	+2.4	155.7	59%	70–77	✓
Rutgers @ Kennesaw State	+6.8	171.6	73%	77–79	✓
South Florida @ Wright State	+5.8	152.2	70%	73–72	✗
William & Mary @ App State	-2.4	145.1	42%	76–79	✗
Vermont @ Fairfield	-3.8	126.4	36%	66–67	✗
Binghamton @ Central Connecticut	+15.4	133.3	92%	56–64	✓
Villanova @ Maryland	+15.9	147.9	93%	75–76	✓
South Dakota State @ Duquesne	-10.6	154.9	17%	71–60	✓
Eastern Illinois @ Valparaiso	+3.2	151.1	61%	53–81	✓
Bryant @ St. Bonaventure	+12.6	150.5	87%	70–85	✓
UNC Asheville @ Central Arkansas	-4.2	139.5	35%	83–92	✗
St. Thomas @ Milwaukee	-1.2	153.4	46%	65–69	✗
LSU @ UCF	-4.9	143.4	33%	109–102	✓
Oklahoma State @ Nevada	+5.7	139.5	70%	78–90	✓
Florida International @ Florida Gulf Coast	+7.3	132.8	75%	59–60	✓
Alabama State @ Akron	+3.1	156.8	61%	78–97	✓
North Alabama @ Northwestern State	-1.4	153.8	45%	58–71	✗
Florida State @ Massachusetts	-3.1	154.0	39%	92–59	✓
Cal State Northridge @ Utah Tech	-23.0	152.8	2%	89–79	✓
Towson @ Morgan State	-1.7	145.7	44%	64–60	✓
Campbell @ Evansville	+1.6	148.7	56%	53–66	✓
Mercyhurst @ Air Force	+2.8	120.0	60%	48–82	✓
Sacramento State @ California	+12.0	134.2	86%	77–83	✓
Alcorn State @ UC Riverside	+22.6	140.3	98%	52–69	✓
Idaho @ San Diego	+5.6	149.7	69%	61–68	✓
Missouri State @ High Point	+2.3	156.1	58%	71–61	✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Missouri	+38.7	160.3	100%	63–112	✓
Queens University @ East Tennessee State	+10.8	142.0	84%	67–82	✓
Jackson State @ Lipscomb	+17.5	150.9	94%	53–77	✓
Longwood @ McNeese	+2.8	132.9	60%	69–84	✓
Middle Tennessee @ Bradley	+2.6	156.2	59%	69–80	✓
Florida Atlantic @ Seton Hall	-8.1	142.3	23%	61–63	✗
Yale @ Delaware	-15.2	161.1	8%	94–100	✗
Wisconsin @ Pittsburgh	+9.9	155.4	82%	81–75	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.