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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
40–12 on winners
spread MAE 10.5
52 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tennessee State
@
Chattanooga
|
+12.2 | 154.7 | 87% | 78–85 | ✓ |
East Texas A&M
@
Stonehill
|
+8.7 | 133.5 | 79% | 65–67 | ✓ |
New Hampshire
@
Columbia
|
+22.0 | 143.1 | 98% | 57–83 | ✓ |
North Carolina A&T
@
Buffalo
|
+0.8 | 166.1 | 53% | 81–82 | ✓ |
Green Bay
@
Ohio State
|
+27.9 | 158.6 | 99% | 69–102 | ✓ |
Cornell
@
Iona
|
+2.1 | 154.3 | 58% | 84–68 | ✗ |
Missouri State
@
Boston College
|
+0.2 | 146.3 | 51% | 74–76 | ✓ |
Le Moyne
@
UT Rio Grande Valley
|
+19.2 | 153.1 | 96% | 77–97 | ✓ |
Utah Tech
@
Montana
|
+12.1 | 149.6 | 86% | 66–69 | ✓ |
Maryland Eastern Shore
@
Arkansas
|
+27.5 | 142.8 | 99% | 35–109 | ✓ |
Indiana State
@
Southern Indiana
|
+6.9 | 159.4 | 73% | 77–87 | ✓ |
Oregon State
@
North Texas
|
+4.4 | 127.5 | 65% | 55–58 | ✓ |
Quinnipiac
@
Saint Louis
|
+1.4 | 142.0 | 55% | 67–81 | ✓ |
UTSA
@
Troy
|
+18.6 | 143.0 | 95% | 72–86 | ✓ |
Incarnate Word
@
South Alabama
|
+8.1 | 138.7 | 77% | 63–84 | ✓ |
Eastern Michigan
@
Houston Christian
|
-0.8 | 125.7 | 47% | 74–73 | ✓ |
Central Michigan
@
Minnesota
|
+1.6 | 118.6 | 56% | 65–68 | ✓ |
McNeese
@
Liberty
|
+5.0 | 130.0 | 68% | 58–62 | ✓ |
Xavier
@
South Carolina
|
-0.5 | 149.0 | 48% | 75–66 | ✓ |
UTEP
@
San José State
|
-11.6 | 141.2 | 14% | 65–71 | ✗ |
Auburn
@
Iowa State
|
-14.3 | 148.3 | 10% | 83–81 | ✓ |
Abilene Christian
@
Southern Miss
|
-3.8 | 149.8 | 37% | 82–74 | ✓ |
Norfolk State
@
UC Davis
|
+7.9 | 145.6 | 76% | 76–55 | ✗ |
Little Rock
@
Illinois
|
+16.0 | 147.4 | 93% | 34–92 | ✓ |
UNC Greensboro
@
Long Beach State
|
-11.5 | 132.3 | 15% | 71–48 | ✓ |
Dayton
@
North Carolina
|
+12.2 | 161.8 | 87% | 90–92 | ✓ |
Drexel
@
Chicago State
|
-20.7 | 137.1 | 3% | 83–71 | ✓ |
Jacksonville
@
Siena
|
-7.7 | 144.0 | 24% | 75–64 | ✓ |
Duquesne
@
Old Dominion
|
-7.8 | 142.5 | 24% | 67–54 | ✓ |
Eastern Kentucky
@
Southern Illinois
|
-0.6 | 147.9 | 48% | 77–72 | ✓ |
Tulsa
@
Detroit Mercy
|
+3.5 | 155.5 | 62% | 63–44 | ✗ |
SE Louisiana
@
Gardner-Webb
|
+7.3 | 139.8 | 75% | 69–73 | ✓ |
San Francisco
@
Fordham
|
-9.5 | 137.1 | 19% | 85–64 | ✓ |
Miami (OH)
@
Mercer
|
-1.5 | 160.7 | 45% | 75–72 | ✓ |
Hampton
@
High Point
|
+2.2 | 129.3 | 58% | 73–76 | ✓ |
Creighton
@
San Diego State
|
-1.8 | 141.1 | 44% | 53–71 | ✗ |
Georgia State
@
Austin Peay
|
+1.8 | 149.7 | 57% | 50–62 | ✓ |
Louisiana Tech
@
Richmond
|
-14.7 | 145.9 | 9% | 65–62 | ✓ |
North Dakota
@
Bethune-Cookman
|
-0.3 | 135.0 | 49% | 67–79 | ✗ |
UConn
@
Colorado
|
-12.8 | 149.5 | 12% | 72–73 | ✗ |
Clemson
@
Penn State
|
+4.1 | 157.3 | 65% | 75–67 | ✗ |
Denver
@
Utah Tech
|
-2.6 | 149.6 | 41% | 54–68 | ✗ |
Bryant
@
Tennessee State
|
-10.7 | 165.3 | 17% | 97–85 | ✓ |
West Georgia
@
Utah Valley
|
+19.7 | 142.9 | 96% | 74–77 | ✓ |
Texas A&M
@
Oregon
|
-3.9 | 146.0 | 36% | 70–80 | ✗ |
South Dakota State
@
Missouri State
|
-1.0 | 158.2 | 46% | 75–55 | ✓ |
UT Arlington
@
Murray State
|
+10.0 | 159.8 | 82% | 66–79 | ✓ |
Memphis
@
Michigan State
|
-4.3 | 151.4 | 35% | 71–63 | ✓ |
NJIT
@
Cleveland State
|
+16.6 | 130.8 | 93% | 53–56 | ✓ |
Wyoming
@
Tulane
|
+7.4 | 146.1 | 75% | 64–63 | ✗ |
Western Kentucky
@
Kentucky
|
+32.7 | 158.8 | 100% | 68–87 | ✓ |
Radford
@
Purdue Fort Wayne
|
+10.2 | 161.6 | 82% | 69–56 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.