You scumbag, you maggot, you cheap lousy faggot "Fairytale of New York" - The Pogues
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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22–8 on winners spread MAE 8.8 30 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Grambling @ USC +7.9 140.1 79% 69–80 ✓
Denver @ Montana +4.0 145.4 66% 73–83 ✓
Old Dominion @ Boston College +11.6 140.3 83% 52–82 ✓
Liberty @ Kansas State -7.0 133.8 25% 67–65 ✓
Ohio @ Texas State +1.8 145.0 58% 65–74 ✓
Texas Southern @ New Mexico +18.3 152.1 90% 68–99 ✓
Southern Miss @ Montana State +11.4 152.3 85% 59–79 ✓
Drake @ Vanderbilt +0.5 139.2 54% 81–70 ✗
Radford @ Chicago State -11.7 144.2 15% 63–48 ✓
Hampton @ Duquesne -2.5 131.3 39% 64–59 ✓
Siena @ Miami (OH) +0.0 143.5 48% 58–70 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Ball State -7.7 141.3 21% 61–63 ✗
Howard @ UMBC -2.8 143.9 36% 77–95 ✗
UAB @ Louisiana -6.7 151.1 24% 98–86 ✓
Drexel @ Purdue Fort Wayne +3.2 143.2 64% 81–87 ✓
Boise State @ South Dakota State -6.0 150.1 27% 83–82 ✓
Memphis @ UConn +1.3 141.2 51% 99–97 ✗
Illinois State @ George Washington +0.4 144.9 53% 64–72 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Louisiana Tech +5.8 142.7 73% 79–85 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Alabama A&M +3.5 145.0 59% 88–83 ✗
Mercer @ Jacksonville +6.3 142.5 75% 90–89 ✗
Denver @ Cal State Northridge +7.7 146.9 79% 60–89 ✓
Penn State @ Fordham -13.3 155.8 15% 85–66 ✓
High Point @ Old Dominion -12.0 141.3 15% 73–67 ✓
Longwood @ Kansas State +0.3 138.2 52% 64–80 ✓
Colorado @ Michigan State -1.5 143.3 42% 56–72 ✗
Merrimack @ UMass Lowell +7.2 135.2 74% 74–81 ✓
Michigan @ Virginia Tech -7.5 138.7 22% 75–63 ✓
Long Island University @ Winthrop +4.5 145.4 66% 65–87 ✓
Clemson @ San Francisco +0.4 140.0 51% 70–55 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.