I'm just like a turtle crawling out of my shell. "Boombastic" - Shaggy
← All models

Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →
38–16 on winners spread MAE 9.5 54 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Youngstown State @ Stephen F. Austin +4.0 126.4 64% 57–64 ✓
New Mexico State @ UNLV +11.6 141.7 83% 65–72 ✓
Stony Brook @ Columbia +14.5 148.8 88% 63–82 ✓
Kent State @ Cleveland State +2.3 134.4 57% 68–52 ✗
Rider @ Bucknell +5.9 146.3 73% 57–53 ✗
Cal Poly @ Saint Mary's +7.9 155.4 77% 66–80 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Northern Colorado +17.0 159.1 89% 98–114 ✓
Eastern Washington @ California Baptist +5.0 150.6 69% 68–79 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ BYU +25.4 142.9 91% 43–87 ✓
Stanford @ Santa Clara -0.2 145.6 37% 71–69 ✓
Portland @ Princeton +6.0 142.0 73% 67–94 ✓
St. John's @ Georgia -2.5 149.7 40% 63–66 ✗
Hampton @ Boise State +14.1 138.1 86% 69–83 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Northeastern +5.8 138.0 73% 68–60 ✗
American University @ UAlbany +3.1 131.8 66% 81–77 ✗
Holy Cross @ Maine +4.1 140.3 65% 55–80 ✓
Boston University @ Howard +3.9 137.3 69% 69–62 ✗
Omaha @ Lamar -1.9 145.5 40% 65–59 ✓
Wofford @ Portland State -2.6 149.3 40% 74–79 ✗
Charleston @ Rhode Island +10.0 159.8 79% 53–91 ✓
Miami @ VCU +1.7 145.1 57% 70–77 ✓
Rutgers @ Kennesaw State +4.4 155.9 66% 77–79 ✓
South Florida @ Wright State +3.5 145.2 68% 73–72 ✗
William & Mary @ App State -1.7 142.2 43% 76–79 ✗
Vermont @ Fairfield -2.9 129.1 40% 66–67 ✗
Binghamton @ Central Connecticut +10.7 132.1 85% 56–64 ✓
Villanova @ Maryland +10.7 142.2 84% 75–76 ✓
South Dakota State @ Duquesne -7.3 146.3 21% 71–60 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Valparaiso +4.1 143.8 65% 53–81 ✓
Bryant @ St. Bonaventure +11.8 146.3 83% 70–85 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Central Arkansas -1.9 139.9 34% 83–92 ✗
St. Thomas @ Milwaukee +1.8 147.3 57% 65–69 ✓
LSU @ UCF -3.7 140.5 33% 109–102 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Nevada +4.1 137.9 67% 78–90 ✓
Florida International @ Florida Gulf Coast +5.9 130.8 69% 59–60 ✓
Alabama State @ Akron +3.5 148.8 65% 78–97 ✓
North Alabama @ Northwestern State -0.9 144.4 42% 58–71 ✗
Florida State @ Massachusetts -3.7 145.7 32% 92–59 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Utah Tech -14.6 147.3 14% 89–79 ✓
Towson @ Morgan State -0.5 139.0 39% 64–60 ✓
Campbell @ Evansville +2.8 143.4 60% 53–66 ✓
Mercyhurst @ Air Force +2.7 126.2 56% 48–82 ✓
Sacramento State @ California +9.9 135.7 82% 77–83 ✓
Alcorn State @ UC Riverside +14.7 139.9 89% 52–69 ✓
Idaho @ San Diego +3.7 142.6 58% 61–68 ✓
Missouri State @ High Point +2.3 146.5 62% 71–61 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Missouri +27.0 155.1 91% 63–112 ✓
Queens University @ East Tennessee State +7.5 141.6 76% 67–82 ✓
Jackson State @ Lipscomb +12.2 146.2 87% 53–77 ✓
Longwood @ McNeese +0.8 133.5 50% 69–84 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Bradley +2.0 147.9 61% 69–80 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Seton Hall -5.1 139.1 26% 61–63 ✗
Yale @ Delaware -9.0 150.4 21% 94–100 ✗
Wisconsin @ Pittsburgh +6.0 149.3 73% 81–75 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.