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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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57–16 on winners spread MAE 10.3 73 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Omaha @ James Madison	+4.8	162.6	67%	77–88	✓
North Carolina Central @ South Carolina Upstate	+17.7	147.2	95%	67–82	✓
Boston University @ Penn State	+15.2	147.2	92%	87–96	✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Florida State	+29.1	162.5	100%	59–89	✓
Old Dominion @ Villanova	+19.0	143.1	96%	75–89	✓
Wright State @ Stetson	-2.7	146.6	40%	79–62	✓
Rice @ Florida Gulf Coast	+11.2	163.2	85%	63–78	✓
Houston Christian @ Bellarmine	+3.6	140.8	63%	69–74	✓
Hampton @ Maryland Eastern Shore	-0.4	120.8	49%	74–68	✓
Chicago State @ Purdue Fort Wayne	+8.7	153.0	78%	77–90	✓
Quinnipiac @ UCF	+12.9	161.0	88%	91–102	✓
Campbell @ Wake Forest	+14.9	163.3	91%	51–99	✓
Lehigh @ Marist	+13.6	126.9	89%	55–78	✓
Coppin State @ Rider	+7.5	143.5	75%	68–65	✗
George Mason @ Florida Atlantic	-1.2	154.1	46%	74–65	✓
Eastern Illinois @ Central Arkansas	+4.7	139.0	67%	60–81	✓
Murray State @ George Washington	+10.1	175.1	82%	96–95	✗
Temple @ Princeton	-5.1	154.6	32%	79–75	✓
Kansas State @ Indiana	+9.5	163.4	81%	69–86	✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Texas A&M	+29.8	159.2	100%	84–120	✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Cal Poly	+6.4	165.9	72%	84–68	✗
South Carolina State @ Missouri	+33.9	159.8	100%	66–98	✓
Eastern Washington @ North Texas	+8.3	141.7	77%	71–79	✓
Northern Illinois @ Austin Peay	+15.3	143.9	92%	59–77	✓
Washington State @ Arizona State	+6.4	159.5	72%	94–100	✓
Auburn @ Michigan	+7.1	167.0	74%	72–102	✓
Winthrop @ Nebraska	+8.7	163.7	79%	73–80	✓
New Mexico State @ UC Irvine	-2.8	148.8	40%	57–45	✓
UTSA @ Georgia Southern	+7.3	156.3	75%	77–64	✗
Oakland @ Montana	+6.1	174.3	71%	95–87	✗
Portland State @ Utah Tech	+0.4	159.0	51%	68–63	✗
Maryland @ Gonzaga	+23.1	148.3	98%	61–100	✓
Ole Miss @ Iowa	+8.3	151.0	77%	69–74	✓
UCLA @ California	-2.5	142.9	41%	72–80	✗
San Diego State @ Oregon	-2.0	145.7	43%	97–80	✓
UNLV @ Alabama	+13.4	188.7	89%	76–115	✓
Utah @ Grand Canyon	+4.1	165.8	65%	58–68	✓
Saint Francis @ Troy	+26.4	168.5	99%	64–74	✓
Bowling Green @ VMI	-16.1	154.1	7%	81–48	✓
Vanderbilt @ Western Kentucky	-11.8	176.6	14%	83–78	✓
Towson @ UC San Diego	+2.0	135.1	57%	73–87	✓
UMass Lowell @ Stonehill	+13.7	152.5	89%	75–64	✗
Syracuse @ Iowa State	+8.2	148.9	77%	64–95	✓
LSU New Orleans @ Texas Tech	+10.5	155.7	83%	50–82	✓
Brown @ New Hampshire	+1.8	132.0	56%	59–47	✗
Belmont @ Toledo	-6.7	152.5	27%	87–72	✓
Buffalo @ Bucknell	-12.1	146.0	14%	73–71	✓
San José State @ Loyola Chicago	-6.4	140.7	28%	63–51	✓
Miami (OH) @ UNC Greensboro	-11.7	161.5	14%	82–71	✓
Omaha @ Florida International	+7.4	163.1	75%	61–74	✓
App State @ Mercer	+17.0	148.8	94%	67–75	✓
UIC @ Robert Morris	+5.3	152.2	68%	74–88	✓
Wofford @ Northern Kentucky	+9.8	149.3	81%	83–93	✓
Army @ Fairleigh Dickinson	+7.4	158.4	75%	81–73	✗
USC @ Arizona State	-9.0	169.4	21%	88–75	✓
Liberty @ Bradley	-7.8	152.4	24%	64–74	✗
South Florida @ VCU	-2.2	176.9	42%	66–78	✗
North Dakota State @ Jacksonville State	-6.6	141.0	27%	56–43	✓
Southern Indiana @ Valparaiso	+14.3	147.7	90%	64–56	✗
Georgia State @ New Mexico State	+15.4	144.3	92%	58–77	✓
Notre Dame @ Houston	+7.5	134.4	75%	56–66	✓
Lipscomb @ Marshall	+14.7	154.7	91%	90–67	✗
Navy @ Gardner-Webb	-15.9	157.5	7%	84–51	✓
Harvard @ Boston College	+6.3	133.0	72%	60–73	✓
Northern Iowa @ Tulsa	+5.9	136.9	70%	60–63	✓
Oral Roberts @ Rice	-3.3	157.1	38%	62–81	✗
Vermont @ Princeton	-10.1	158.7	18%	79–74	✓
Wagner @ Manhattan	-4.5	161.6	34%	103–101	✓
Virginia Tech @ Colorado State	-1.0	169.4	46%	66–64	✓
Seton Hall @ Washington State	-12.7	144.3	12%	75–61	✓
Samford @ Utah Valley	+8.2	155.7	77%	45–89	✓
Northern Colorado @ Air Force	-3.0	152.5	39%	71–53	✓
Sam Houston @ Idaho State	+1.4	143.4	55%	84–81	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.