In North Carolina way back in the hills, there lived my pappy and he had him a still. "White Lightning" - The Big Bopper
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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40–15 on winners spread MAE 9.9 55 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Eastern Michigan @ Louisville +22.8 156.4 98% 46–87 ✓
James Madison @ Florida International +9.3 163.9 80% 80–72 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Northern Kentucky +16.1 154.7 93% 71–82 ✓
Bellarmine @ The Citadel +3.0 176.4 61% 70–58 ✗
Kansas City @ Lindenwood +8.9 152.7 79% 67–80 ✓
NJIT @ Cincinnati +18.5 134.1 95% 67–94 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Central Connecticut +14.7 136.1 91% 106–108 ✓
Princeton @ Bradley +1.0 140.4 54% 64–88 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Florida Gulf Coast +13.5 167.8 89% 88–93 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Mississippi State +2.0 161.9 57% 78–81 ✓
Murray State @ McNeese +3.3 177.0 62% 60–73 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Illinois +24.1 164.0 99% 73–87 ✓
Auburn @ Oregon -12.8 156.1 12% 84–73 ✓
Yale @ Akron +1.6 165.8 56% 97–94 ✗
Jacksonville State @ Arkansas State +9.8 159.4 81% 63–74 ✓
Cal Poly @ Northern Arizona -3.5 148.8 37% 87–93 ✗
Radford @ SMU +30.9 163.6 100% 72–89 ✓
Long Island University @ Missouri State +7.1 143.8 74% 75–61 ✗
Florida Atlantic @ Loyola Marymount -1.1 151.6 46% 76–65 ✓
UTSA @ Abilene Christian -0.8 144.8 47% 50–61 ✗
Louisiana @ UC Davis +17.3 132.9 94% 56–77 ✓
Gonzaga @ Alabama -9.5 163.2 19% 95–85 ✓
Denver @ Arizona +19.3 158.1 96% 73–103 ✓
San Diego State @ Michigan +7.3 157.7 75% 54–94 ✓
Arizona State @ Texas +6.9 141.4 74% 87–86 ✗
UNLV @ Maryland -4.6 179.0 34% 67–74 ✗
Stony Brook @ Bethune-Cookman +4.2 161.9 65% 61–54 ✗
Towson @ Liberty +6.4 130.8 72% 72–69 ✗
Michigan State @ East Carolina -21.1 143.6 3% 89–56 ✓
Rutgers @ Notre Dame +9.6 143.5 81% 63–68 ✓
Pacific @ Jacksonville -3.9 130.9 36% 68–53 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Delaware -0.1 151.7 50% 60–73 ✗
Tulsa @ San José State -10.6 152.3 17% 81–51 ✓
Creighton @ Iowa State +11.4 154.7 85% 60–78 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Army -5.4 148.1 31% 84–67 ✓
NC State @ Boise State -7.4 154.3 25% 81–70 ✓
Rhode Island @ Vermont +0.5 164.0 52% 80–65 ✗
Samford @ Georgia State -7.8 145.7 24% 78–63 ✓
Syracuse @ Kansas +3.8 141.1 64% 60–71 ✓
UTEP @ UAB +11.4 138.7 85% 59–75 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Loyola Chicago -17.9 135.2 5% 72–51 ✓
St. John's @ Baylor -9.7 169.7 19% 96–81 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Oral Roberts -7.3 172.4 25% 83–91 ✗
Loyola Marymount @ Ohio -12.1 145.9 13% 70–58 ✓
UC San Diego @ Bradley -8.9 146.3 21% 87–77 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ McNeese +7.5 161.0 75% 62–72 ✓
Seton Hall @ USC +0.9 151.7 53% 81–83 ✓
Tennessee @ Houston -1.9 131.9 43% 76–73 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ North Carolina +9.6 153.1 81% 70–85 ✓
Utah Valley @ South Dakota State +7.8 164.3 76% 75–52 ✗
Drexel @ Morgan State -0.1 150.5 50% 71–66 ✓
Tennessee State @ UNC Asheville +4.0 160.4 64% 75–73 ✗
William & Mary @ Abilene Christian -11.7 147.9 14% 92–58 ✓
San Diego @ California Baptist +10.3 142.1 83% 61–76 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Ohio State +22.2 146.4 98% 60–113 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.