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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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24–18 on winners spread MAE 11.2 42 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Northwestern @ Butler +0.9 130.0 53% 69–71 ✓
Kennesaw State @ UC Irvine +10.9 153.9 84% 59–76 ✓
Davidson @ Providence +4.5 145.5 66% 69–58 ✗
Northern Iowa @ North Texas +1.4 134.7 55% 48–68 ✓
Saint Mary's @ USC -2.8 152.9 40% 71–36 ✓
Mississippi State @ UNLV -11.8 155.6 14% 80–58 ✓
Kent State @ Towson -1.7 122.1 44% 65–54 ✓
Arizona State @ New Mexico +1.7 157.4 56% 85–82 ✗
Providence @ Indiana +0.4 135.7 52% 73–89 ✓
Alcorn State @ South Alabama +23.5 126.8 98% 65–74 ✓
Colgate @ App State -1.8 123.5 44% 50–72 ✗
Dartmouth @ Boston College +22.8 138.9 98% 88–83 ✗
Minnesota @ Wake Forest -3.1 116.1 39% 51–57 ✗
Bowling Green @ Weber State -1.6 155.4 44% 70–73 ✗
Valparaiso @ DePaul +20.3 154.6 97% 70–89 ✓
TCU @ Colorado State -3.9 137.0 36% 72–76 ✗
Merrimack @ Troy +18.5 123.2 95% 72–68 ✗
Maine @ Elon +9.2 142.4 80% 69–56 ✗
Niagara @ Binghamton -5.2 150.9 32% 65–62 ✓
VMI @ George Washington +13.0 145.6 88% 64–77 ✓
Tarleton State @ Iona +5.7 130.5 70% 51–62 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Ohio State +5.0 144.5 68% 91–90 ✗
Arizona @ West Virginia -0.5 153.9 48% 76–83 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ Vanderbilt +15.3 161.4 92% 56–87 ✓
Morehead State @ Cleveland State +8.0 133.6 77% 71–69 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Eastern Illinois +6.6 140.2 73% 59–72 ✓
Wichita State @ Florida +9.6 158.3 81% 51–88 ✓
NC State @ BYU +4.8 153.7 67% 61–72 ✓
Pepperdine @ New Mexico State +7.2 138.9 74% 82–70 ✗
West Georgia @ Samford +20.1 161.3 97% 65–86 ✓
Sam Houston @ UNC Wilmington -0.8 161.0 47% 60–69 ✗
George Mason @ James Madison +2.1 150.7 57% 66–61 ✗
Holy Cross @ Virginia +6.3 126.9 72% 41–67 ✓
Santa Clara @ Washington -5.4 141.0 31% 69–76 ✗
Long Island University @ Lafayette +3.5 141.8 63% 56–75 ✓
Navy @ Pennsylvania +4.2 154.6 65% 86–78 ✗
Indiana State @ Arkansas State +9.4 155.3 80% 81–86 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Belmont +2.3 157.6 58% 74–83 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ East Carolina +10.1 153.1 82% 69–93 ✓
Oklahoma @ Louisville +4.9 149.6 67% 69–64 ✗
Ole Miss @ Purdue +3.1 142.9 61% 78–80 ✓
Utah State @ North Texas -7.9 146.0 24% 61–57 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.