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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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55–18 on winners spread MAE 10.9 73 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Omaha @ James Madison +4.3 148.0 70% 77–88 ✓
North Carolina Central @ South Carolina Upstate +11.8 140.7 86% 67–82 ✓
Boston University @ Penn State +15.2 142.3 88% 87–96 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Florida State +23.3 152.0 91% 59–89 ✓
Old Dominion @ Villanova +18.3 141.8 88% 75–89 ✓
Wright State @ Stetson -1.4 142.2 44% 79–62 ✓
Rice @ Florida Gulf Coast +8.3 150.3 77% 63–78 ✓
Houston Christian @ Bellarmine +2.0 135.1 58% 69–74 ✓
Hampton @ Maryland Eastern Shore +1.4 129.5 49% 74–68 ✗
Chicago State @ Purdue Fort Wayne +5.9 143.2 71% 77–90 ✓
Quinnipiac @ UCF +12.2 151.3 85% 91–102 ✓
Campbell @ Wake Forest +13.4 151.8 87% 51–99 ✓
Lehigh @ Marist +9.7 126.5 77% 55–78 ✓
Coppin State @ Rider +6.5 138.2 74% 68–65 ✗
George Mason @ Florida Atlantic -0.7 144.5 47% 74–65 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Central Arkansas +2.4 134.8 57% 60–81 ✓
Murray State @ George Washington +7.8 163.1 78% 96–95 ✗
Temple @ Princeton -4.1 142.7 33% 79–75 ✓
Kansas State @ Indiana +8.2 156.7 73% 69–86 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Texas A&M +23.4 151.4 91% 84–120 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Cal Poly +5.0 151.2 71% 84–68 ✗
South Carolina State @ Missouri +24.8 149.6 91% 66–98 ✓
Eastern Washington @ North Texas +7.3 135.1 74% 71–79 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Austin Peay +11.8 139.9 86% 59–77 ✓
Washington State @ Arizona State +4.7 147.3 72% 94–100 ✓
Auburn @ Michigan +5.3 155.8 71% 72–102 ✓
Winthrop @ Nebraska +9.6 152.8 80% 73–80 ✓
New Mexico State @ UC Irvine -2.3 140.1 35% 57–45 ✓
UTSA @ Georgia Southern +3.3 143.5 65% 77–64 ✗
Oakland @ Montana +4.5 158.4 70% 95–87 ✗
Portland State @ Utah Tech +1.0 148.6 57% 68–63 ✗
Maryland @ Gonzaga +14.7 142.5 85% 61–100 ✓
Ole Miss @ Iowa +4.4 143.7 67% 69–74 ✓
UCLA @ California -2.0 137.7 42% 72–80 ✗
San Diego State @ Oregon -1.6 140.4 47% 97–80 ✓
UNLV @ Alabama +7.9 167.1 79% 76–115 ✓
Utah @ Grand Canyon +1.9 151.8 57% 58–68 ✓
Saint Francis @ Troy +14.7 155.0 86% 64–74 ✓
Bowling Green @ VMI -11.7 144.9 15% 81–48 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Western Kentucky -8.1 161.9 23% 83–78 ✓
Towson @ UC San Diego +2.2 130.3 63% 73–87 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Stonehill +9.2 143.4 82% 75–64 ✗
Syracuse @ Iowa State +5.0 142.8 74% 64–95 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Texas Tech +9.6 149.0 81% 50–82 ✓
Brown @ New Hampshire +1.8 133.3 51% 59–47 ✗
Belmont @ Toledo -4.8 144.3 31% 87–72 ✓
Buffalo @ Bucknell -8.0 140.8 19% 73–71 ✓
San José State @ Loyola Chicago -5.3 135.0 29% 63–51 ✓
Miami (OH) @ UNC Greensboro -9.1 148.9 19% 82–71 ✓
Omaha @ Florida International +3.8 148.7 65% 61–74 ✓
App State @ Mercer +9.8 139.9 85% 67–75 ✓
UIC @ Robert Morris +4.6 145.0 70% 74–88 ✓
Wofford @ Northern Kentucky +6.9 143.4 73% 83–93 ✓
Army @ Fairleigh Dickinson +5.4 143.7 69% 81–73 ✗
USC @ Arizona State -6.5 159.6 24% 88–75 ✓
Liberty @ Bradley -6.2 144.2 24% 64–74 ✗
South Florida @ VCU -1.4 160.5 43% 66–78 ✗
North Dakota State @ Jacksonville State -4.2 135.0 32% 56–43 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Valparaiso +10.8 141.8 83% 64–56 ✗
Georgia State @ New Mexico State +10.8 138.2 84% 58–77 ✓
Notre Dame @ Houston +5.4 132.7 72% 56–66 ✓
Lipscomb @ Marshall +12.3 147.3 86% 90–67 ✗
Navy @ Gardner-Webb -11.4 146.2 16% 84–51 ✓
Harvard @ Boston College +4.7 132.6 68% 60–73 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Tulsa +3.6 130.9 65% 60–63 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Rice -2.1 146.4 40% 62–81 ✗
Vermont @ Princeton -6.0 146.9 25% 79–74 ✓
Wagner @ Manhattan -1.7 149.4 43% 103–101 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Colorado State -2.4 156.3 35% 66–64 ✓
Seton Hall @ Washington State -9.4 140.3 19% 75–61 ✓
Samford @ Utah Valley +5.0 144.9 73% 45–89 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Air Force +0.1 145.5 44% 71–53 ✗
Sam Houston @ Idaho State +1.2 137.2 55% 84–81 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.