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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
33–19 on winners
spread MAE 8.8
52 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-2.0 | 147.5 | 42% | 99–98 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.4 | 144.2 | 40% | 66–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+15.3 | 143.1 | 89% | 64–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.9 | 141.8 | 86% | 73–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.2 | 127.6 | 60% | 68–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+15.2 | 146.6 | 88% | 72–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.1 | 158.5 | 81% | 66–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.0 | 152.0 | 87% | 51–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.1 | 132.6 | 69% | 58–55 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.9 | 143.5 | 57% | 77–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+18.0 | 142.8 | 89% | 56–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.6 | 145.0 | 65% | 64–77 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.3 | 138.5 | 43% | 54–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.1 | 145.7 | 48% | 77–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.5 | 143.6 | 50% | 62–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+17.0 | 145.2 | 88% | 68–100 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.8 | 147.6 | 61% | 73–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+26.1 | 142.8 | 91% | 49–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.7 | 146.3 | 83% | 58–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.5 | 149.4 | 73% | 81–96 | ✓ |
|
|
-11.3 | 147.0 | 17% | 77–78 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.7 | 145.3 | 72% | 68–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.1 | 134.2 | 57% | 78–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+17.3 | 136.7 | 90% | 69–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.2 | 130.8 | 83% | 42–64 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.9 | 150.1 | 38% | 83–96 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.4 | 137.9 | 55% | 54–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.2 | 145.1 | 29% | 85–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.0 | 151.6 | 63% | 75–63 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.2 | 136.8 | 33% | 89–81 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.1 | 143.7 | 26% | 71–64 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.9 | 144.4 | 23% | 60–58 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.3 | 143.5 | 38% | 95–88 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.2 | 153.0 | 50% | 74–80 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.7 | 141.9 | 79% | 63–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.5 | 134.2 | 46% | 68–76 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.2 | 142.9 | 61% | 67–42 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.0 | 144.1 | 40% | 67–73 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.2 | 132.2 | 51% | 60–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.9 | 146.2 | 55% | 70–86 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.5 | 145.8 | 44% | 77–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.9 | 132.5 | 65% | 60–76 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.3 | 138.6 | 22% | 73–81 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.6 | 133.5 | 56% | 57–71 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.7 | 142.2 | 47% | 69–78 | ✗ |
|
|
+25.0 | 151.6 | 91% | 53–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.7 | 132.8 | 86% | 69–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.6 | 132.5 | 81% | 67–72 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.3 | 139.8 | 22% | 53–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.9 | 149.6 | 82% | 72–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+20.4 | 133.9 | 89% | 60–104 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.6 | 153.2 | 26% | 82–80 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.