He just grinned and shook my hand, "No" was all he said. "The Weight" - The Band
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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63–28 on winners spread MAE 10.1 91 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Jackson State @ Kentucky +37.8 156.5 91% 59–108 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Florida +16.1 148.6 85% 68–93 ✓
Virginia @ St. John's +7.1 131.3 77% 55–80 ✓
Syracuse @ Texas Tech +11.5 156.1 84% 74–79 ✓
William & Mary @ NC State +10.8 154.9 83% 61–84 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Georgia State +4.2 142.7 63% 79–93 ✓
Army @ Manhattan +4.0 147.7 68% 79–80 ✓
VMI @ Davidson +10.2 148.7 81% 66–93 ✓
Colgate @ Harvard +4.1 133.6 63% 67–78 ✓
Chicago State @ Indiana State +14.7 149.4 88% 61–97 ✓
Morgan State @ Buffalo +4.7 154.7 70% 73–82 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ East Tennessee State +10.1 153.7 81% 76–87 ✓
Drexel @ Fordham +4.6 136.4 61% 73–71 ✗
Merrimack @ Butler +11.7 128.2 80% 39–78 ✓
Winthrop @ Louisville +18.0 147.0 88% 61–76 ✓
Texas State @ Princeton -0.8 138.5 48% 83–80 ✓
VCU @ Nevada +2.0 137.2 59% 61–64 ✓
UL Monroe @ Northwestern State +11.2 139.2 78% 65–63 ✗
LSU New Orleans @ Tulane +22.0 141.4 90% 93–87 ✗
UNC Asheville @ Southeast Missouri State -2.0 149.7 44% 72–64 ✓
Elon @ Notre Dame +7.2 147.0 72% 84–77 ✗
Pacific @ Missouri +26.5 149.4 89% 56–91 ✓
Hofstra @ Houston +21.8 134.9 90% 44–80 ✓
Nebraska @ Creighton +9.4 142.9 79% 74–63 ✗
South Dakota @ Southern Indiana +2.2 152.6 61% 83–92 ✓
Utah Valley @ Murray State +10.6 146.8 80% 77–75 ✗
Green Bay @ Evansville -3.9 148.7 30% 81–98 ✗
South Carolina State @ Alabama A&M +0.3 139.6 27% 82–70 ✗
Incarnate Word @ Northern Arizona +7.1 142.2 71% 74–75 ✓
Rice @ Houston Christian -4.2 134.5 22% 61–58 ✓
Portland State @ Milwaukee -0.2 153.5 50% 74–91 ✗
Pepperdine @ Northwestern +18.2 141.1 88% 50–68 ✓
Utah State @ Iowa -0.7 156.1 46% 77–69 ✓
George Washington @ Kansas State -4.0 145.2 34% 71–83 ✗
Omaha @ Alabama State -1.4 145.0 44% 67–85 ✗
SE Louisiana @ Wyoming +3.8 142.1 63% 61–64 ✓
Mississippi State @ SMU +3.4 157.9 54% 84–79 ✗
Little Rock @ Arkansas +11.9 134.0 79% 67–79 ✓
Norfolk State @ Grand Canyon -1.6 145.5 43% 73–91 ✗
UC Riverside @ Colorado State +11.4 147.6 85% 77–75 ✗
UC Irvine @ Weber State -11.0 133.3 18% 93–87 ✓
Tennessee @ Baylor -3.5 149.6 34% 77–62 ✓
Texas @ Saint Joseph's -6.7 144.5 22% 67–58 ✓
Southern Utah @ San Diego +0.5 143.9 54% 72–67 ✗
North Dakota @ Loyola Marymount +4.0 132.2 69% 77–73 ✗
Alcorn State @ Washington +17.2 132.9 90% 60–77 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ UCLA +26.6 133.3 91% 47–80 ✓
Duke @ Arizona -1.1 151.3 39% 69–55 ✓
Wichita State @ Saint Louis -3.8 151.5 32% 88–63 ✓
North Carolina @ Hawai'i -9.5 155.6 23% 87–69 ✓
Georgia @ Marquette +4.0 145.3 62% 69–80 ✓
La Salle @ Stetson -9.2 144.3 20% 92–77 ✓
Florida International @ Cal State Bakersfield +0.8 139.2 46% 76–73 ✗
Marshall @ Purdue +13.3 145.6 84% 45–80 ✓
Presbyterian @ Monmouth -8.1 138.2 22% 71–61 ✓
Delaware @ Vermont -0.8 133.1 49% 71–75 ✗
West Georgia @ Georgia Southern +13.4 151.3 87% 54–64 ✓
Boston University @ UMBC +2.4 137.9 50% 75–71 ✗
Saint Francis @ Georgetown +8.8 139.4 82% 65–82 ✓
Long Island University @ Charlotte +11.5 142.9 85% 79–76 ✗
East Carolina @ UIC +3.1 152.2 61% 72–55 ✗
Northeastern @ Florida Gulf Coast +3.2 133.1 64% 59–55 ✗
Quinnipiac @ UMass Lowell +3.8 145.9 63% 70–80 ✓
UAlbany @ Kansas City -6.6 133.3 27% 67–65 ✓
St. Thomas @ Portland State +0.6 157.1 52% 91–65 ✗
Brown @ Canisius -5.6 143.2 20% 83–76 ✓
Cincinnati @ Georgia Tech -7.9 149.4 24% 81–58 ✓
South Carolina State @ IU Indianapolis -3.8 142.8 35% 72–62 ✓
New Hampshire @ Marist +12.8 145.4 87% 49–54 ✓
Furman @ Charleston Southern -6.0 144.2 26% 67–46 ✓
Fairfield @ Yale +13.0 138.1 85% 66–91 ✓
UAB @ Illinois State +2.4 146.3 58% 83–84 ✓
Bowling Green @ Bellarmine +1.4 147.8 45% 68–80 ✓
James Madison @ Jacksonville State +0.1 146.2 49% 71–65 ✗
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Illinois +27.3 155.2 91% 40–87 ✓
Delaware State @ Mount St. Mary's +10.1 139.3 81% 66–76 ✓
Omaha @ Akron +4.5 148.4 68% 84–92 ✓
Wofford @ Milwaukee +3.9 142.7 70% 74–76 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Wake Forest +9.6 138.3 81% 57–67 ✓
Le Moyne @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +6.5 150.9 73% 61–82 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Alabama A&M -0.1 131.0 32% 70–77 ✗
Idaho @ Southern Utah +4.5 147.5 74% 67–82 ✓
Massachusetts @ Temple +1.5 148.2 58% 80–87 ✓
Northern Illinois @ DePaul +19.8 135.9 88% 52–98 ✓
UL Monroe @ North Alabama +9.0 147.3 76% 62–74 ✓
Fresno State @ Long Beach State +1.3 138.9 42% 72–69 ✗
Louisiana @ George Washington +13.9 147.4 86% 74–83 ✓
Toledo @ UC San Diego -3.6 149.5 39% 45–80 ✗
Tulsa @ Loyola Chicago +9.7 154.5 81% 53–89 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Queens University -1.2 146.2 42% 74–98 ✗
Lamar @ Alabama State +4.2 150.2 66% 75–77 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.